Aviation Strategy

Credentials

Due Diligence and Business Plans

Financial and strategic reviews of investment plans, turn-around plans, mergers, take-overs and bankruptcies — providing investors and financiers with reliable, insightful advice, and clearly quantifying the risks.

Examples:

  • Due diligence on German charter airline in relation to a €200m-plus refinancing for Deutsche Bank.
  • Due diligence on Milan-based freight airline, leading to successful start-up, for Banco Intesa São Paulo.
  • Due diligence of proposed Caribbean start-up, negative recommendation to investor group.
  • Commercial due diligence on a leading ground handling company as part of a private equity sale.
  • Air Arabia: Starting from a clean sheet of paper, created the Business Plan for this highly successful Sharjah-based LCC. This included detailed operating plans and financial projections which were instrumental in raising funding and government support for the airline.
  • SpiceJet: A similar project was carried out for the owners of a dormant Indian airline to produce the sub-continent’s first LCC. As well as full business planning, market assessments and financial projections, joined the road show promoting the (then radical) concept to investors.
  • Al Tayyar Airways: Detailed modeling of a Business Plan for one of three applicants for a domestic Saudi AOC following the partial deregulation of Saudi civil aviation. The forecasts highlighted the risks involved for investors given the demand patterns in Saudi Arabia, the route allocation required by the local authorities and the restrictions on pricing.
  • Air Lituanica: modelling, financial projections and fleet planning for a hybrid carrier based at Vilnius, which started up in 2012.
  • Long-haul business airline: full business planning for investors.
  • Due diligence on fleet planning model and loss calculation for a major flag-carrier on claim for compensation for delays in delivery of 787s.

IPOs, Privatisation and State Aid

  • Advice on privatisation issues re Olympic Airways to the Hellenic Republic including strategic and financial forecasts reviews; recommendations on restructuring the long-haul network; internal route profitability analysis
  • Over three years managed the complicated process of establishing an acceptable vehicle for OA’s assets, enabling the privatisation sale of the carrier to Marfin Capital in March 2009.
  • IPO research and road show presentation and marketing of the IPOs of Air France, Alitalia, Britair, Cathay Pacific, BWIA.
  • Report to NM Rothschild re the privatisation of three European airlines.
  • Analysis of Royal Air Maroc for the World Bank.
  • Advice to Swissair and Air New Zealand over merger propositions.

Market analyses

  • Scenario Analysis for the global airline industry, as an input into an oil company's overall medium-term planning process.
  • “Implications of virtual mergers across the Atlantic”, commissioned by a leading stockbroker.
  • Ongoing specialist reports on European LCCs, European Network carriers, Super-connectors, etc for a leading manufacturer’s scenario planning.
  • Equity research reports on various quoted airlines.

Governments

  • Policy-setting report on “The competitiveness of the European Airline Industry”.
  • Lead Advisor to the “Comité des Sages”, resulting in the seminal “Expanding Horizons” report, confirming and accelerating the deregulation process in European aviation.
  • Designed the EU-compliant regulatory framework for the Greek Public Service Obligation(PSO) route system to be administered by the Hellenic Civial Aviation Authority (HCAA).

Airport forecasting

Involved in numerous airport transactions, focusing on short/medium term traffic, revenue and opex forecasts for investors and financiers.

Examples:

  • Traffic and revenue forecasts for Brussels, Rome, Budapest and Chicago Midway airports for Macquarie.
  • Traffic and revenue forecasts for Belfast City, London City, Gatwick and Liverpool foy YVRAS (Vantage).
  • Full business model for Zagreb for Bouygues.
  • Opex forecast of Copenhagen Airports for Macquarie.

Slot valuation & trading

  • Heathrow portfolio valuation and purchaser identification for an Asian flag-carrier.
  • Heathrow portfolio valuation for a UK based carrier.
  • Gatwick portfolio valuation for a European carrier.
  • Heathrow portfolio valuation for a European carrier.

Operating & Financial Models

Detailed and customisable forecasting and business plan models:

  • Integrated airline start-up model - from PDP payments through traffic, revenues, fleet and costs to projected P&Ls and Balance Sheets.
  • Interactive Operating Lessor model, enabling manipluation of  portfolio changes, lease rates, terms, off-lease periods, interest rates,  residual values, etc.
  • Global long-range supply & demand model.
  • Airport traffic and financial model to EBITDA level.
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